000
FXHW60 PHFO 161944
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
944 AM HST Sun Feb 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure north of the state will bring breezy
trade wind weather through the week. Clouds and passing showers
will favor windward and mountain areas, with most leeward
locations remaining mostly dry. Stronger trade winds and an
increase in showers are possible towards the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place north of the Hawaiian
Islands through the week keeping breezy trade winds in the forecast.
For the most part, windward and mountain areas will see isolated
to scattered shower activity over the next few days. Meanwhile on
the leeward areas, a few showers will be possible mainly during
the early morning or overnight hours.

Weather conditions will begin to change late Tuesday though
Thursday as a strong high moves into the region north of the
islands. Trade wind speeds will increase and could reach wind
advisory thresholds by Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally a few
weak upper level troughs passing over the islands during the
second half of the week will bring an increase of shower activity
across the state. More numerous showers will favor windward and
mountain areas with isolated to scattered shower coverage over
leeward sections of each island from late Tuesday through
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...
A stable and breezy trade wind flow will persist through the next
several days. AIRMET Tango is posted, and will remain in effect,
for tempo moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of
terrain. VFR conditions will dominate over leeward areas, while
windward areas experience brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
reduced visibility in passing showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trades will remain through Tuesday with a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north. A strong high pressure
will increase winds further by midweek, potentially nearing gale-
force levels across the windier areas by Wednesday (Pailolo/Alenuihaha
Channels/Maalaea Bay/Waters near South Point). Seas will hold
near 10 ft across waters exposed to the trades and northwest
swells. Expect the roughest conditions late Tuesday through
Thursday as strong trades become more widespread.

Surf along north and west facing shores will hold today below advisory
levels, then trend down Monday through midweek as a north-northwest
swell eases. Guidance depicts a new northwest swell arriving Wednesday
night, then peaking Thursday with surf heights expected to remain
just under advisory levels.

Surf along exposed east facing shores will remain rough through the
week due to the strong trades upstream of the islands. Heights
may reach the advisory level of 8 ft by Wednesday as winds
increase. Surf along south facing shores will trend up today
through Monday as an out-of-season small, south-southwest swell
moves through. Surf should trend down Tuesday through midweek as
this source eases.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Morrison