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Forecast Discussion for Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 210209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
409 PM HST Wed Jun 20 2018

Trade winds will increase tonight as high pressure builds far
northwest of the state. Volcanic haze lingering over the smaller
islands will clear by morning. Trade winds will become breezy
Friday and continue into next week. Showers will affect mainly
windward and mountain areas with an increase in rainfall possible
early next week.


A surface ridge that has been persistently positioned just north
of the islands will slowly retreat tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. Trade winds will gradually increase with
moderate to breezy trade winds expected Thursday. The volcanic
haze the reached the smaller islands today will clear to the
southwest as trade winds increase. Showers will focus over
windward and mountain areas with an occasional shower reaching
leeward locations. Trade winds will increase another notch
Friday and remain breezy through the weekend as a 1035 mb high
pressure system takes firm control of the weather pattern in the
central Pacific. Aloft, global models are indicating a weak upper
low will drift close to Hawaii from the east and weaken our trade
wind inversion. This would allow for increasing cloud tops and the
potential for an increase in showers Sunday and into next week.


Mainly dry weather will continue across the state through tonight,
with VFR conditions prevailing. Isolated MVFR ceilings are
possible on windward slopes in light showers. Areas of MVFR
visibilities are possible across parts of the Big Island due to
volcanic emissions from Kilauea. Trade winds will begin to
increase tonight, becoming breezy tomorrow. This could lead to a
slight increase in windward/mauka clouds and showers.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated through tonight.


Fresh to strong trades are forecast to return starting late
tonight as high pressure strengthens far northeast of the area. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed on Thursday afternoon
for winds reaching 25 knots in the windy areas around the Big
Island and Maui.

Surf will remain small with no significant swells anticipated into
the upcoming weekend. Surf will gradually build along east facing
shores as trade winds return later tonight and increase Friday
through the upcoming weekend. Overlapping long-period south swells
are expected next week with the first swell expected to arrive
around Tuesday. More details on surf heights will be given as the
swell reaches the buoy near American Samoa.






Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Honolulu, HI (HFO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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